Coincidence Cascades
On Ambient Inspiration and the People Who Change Your Trajectory
A coincidence cascade is a chain of related coincidental events that build on each other. I've experienced several in my life—here are two that shaped my path.
Early in my time in the US, a fellow Belarusian offered to teach me to ride a motorcycle. As an immigrant working multiple jobs, I needed cheap transportation—and motorcycles beat cars on cost and traffic. On a sunny day on Treasure Island, I took my first ride around a curved street. I hit the throttle too hard, panicked at the speed, and crashed. The bike was totaled. I had to give up most of my savings to replace it. That accident turned out to be the best thing that could have happened to me.
The motorcycle owner lived in a house with three roommates. One was moving out, and they needed a replacement. Because I'd quickly paid for the damage, they offered me the spot. My new roommates were ambitious—all working toward bachelor's degrees when most immigrants weren't even considering college. Two weeks after I moved in, two of them got into UC Berkeley. Watching them succeed showed me Berkeley was possible for someone like me. I applied and got in too. One honest act after a stupid mistake had changed my entire career trajectory.
What seemed like the worst luck became the best. The crash got me into that house, which showed me Berkeley was possible, which changed everything.
Years later, a second cascade began. After my startup failed (more on that here), I was deciding between go-to-market and product roles. I chose MuleSoft, partly because I clicked with their internal recruiter, Michael. MuleSoft helped me rebuild my confidence and savings. But Michael left for MemSQL—a database startup 10x smaller than MuleSoft.
Michael and I kept in touch. Given our great working relationship at MuleSoft, when he told me about MemSQL's potential, I listened. A 10x smaller company meant 10x more chaos—but also 10x more learning. I joined MemSQL (longer story here). That decision eventually led me to NEAR and my nascent career in investing.
Michael saw something in me and offered opportunities twice—first at MuleSoft, then at MemSQL. The pattern was the same: how I handled one situation determined my next opportunity. Integrity after the crash got me into that house. My work at MuleSoft got me to MemSQL. MemSQL led to NEAR. Character creates luck. You meet people randomly, but they remember how you show up.
I call this ambient inspiration—being around people whose ambitions expand what you think is possible. My housemates weren't trying to help my career, but their success became my roadmap. Michael was just doing his job as a recruiter, but he changed my trajectory. Each cascade needs two things: random proximity and someone willing to bet on you. You can't control the first, but you can influence the second.